Analysis Of Sansad TV Discussion
”50 Days Of Ukraine-Russia Conflict”

Relevance

”GS 2: Bilateral Groupings & Agreements, Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests”

Context

• It has been 50 days since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in the month of February but there seem to be no indications of the end of hostilities between the two sides despite several rounds of peace talks in the last few weeks.
• Several thousand people including civilians have been killed or injured and lakhs have been displaced due to this conflict.
• Meanwhile, US president Joe Biden has authorised an 800 million dollar US military assistance package for Ukraine saying his country will continue to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defend itself.
• Russia has imposed sanctions against 398 members of the US Congress.
• The presidents of four countries on Russia’s doorstep – Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia also visited Ukraine recently and underscored their support.

What if Sweden and Finland join NATO?

• Discussions about Sweden and Finland joining the NATO bloc have gotten extremely serious since Russia’s invasion.
• Russian leader Dimitry Medvedev has already warned that there will be no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltic if Sweden and Finland join NATO.
• Earlier the Russian President had demanded that NATO cease expanding east and admitting new members, accusing the bloc of threatening Russian security.
• Instead, NATO has increased its support to Ukraine and is now preparing to welcome new members.

Europe’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II

• More than 4.7 million Ukrainians have fled their country in the 50 days since Russia invaded.
• The UN refugee agency UNHCR said 4,736,471 Ukrainians had fled since Russia’s assault began on February 24.
• Women and children account for 90 per cent of those who have left Ukraine, with men aged 18 to 60 eligible for military call-up and unable to leave.
• Beyond the refugees, the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates 7.1 million people have fled their homes but are still in Ukraine.

How long could Russia go?

• First, the punishing Western sanctions on Russia would erode its ability to maintain a prolonged military presence in Ukraine, which is already resulting in significant military personnel losses and an estimated financial cost of tens of millions of dollars per day.
• Second, it would have trouble maintaining control over occupied territories, where the population remains loyal to Kyiv.
• And third, Western economic and military support for the Ukrainian army could reinforce Ukrainian resistance and make any future Russian advances quite difficult.

Worldwide impact if war continues

• According to the Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG), the war in Ukraine is setting in motion a three-dimensional crisis – on food, energy and finance – that is producing alarming cascading effects to a world economy already battered by COVID-19 and climate change.
• The World Food Programme has warned that the war could cause a surge in hunger and malnutrition across the world, as Russia and Ukraine produce about 30 per cent of the global wheat yield and more than half of the global supply of sunflower oil.

Conclusion

With the cost of war rising for Russia and Ukraine, as well as for the world, it is in the interest of both parties for a deal to be reached as soon as possible.

Sharing is caring!