Crisis at Belarus-Poland Border

”GS Paper – 2: Important International Institutions, Bilateral Groupings & Agreements, Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests”

What is the Issue?
Thousands of migrants have gathered to Belarus border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe, and many of them are now stranded at the frontier, setting up makeshift camps(under below freezing temperature at night) as Polish security forces watch them from behind a razor-wire fence and prevent them from entering the country.

What is behind the crisis?

Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term in office.
The opposition and the West rejected the result as a sham.
Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
The European Union and the US reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.
Those restrictions were toughened after an incident in May when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich.
The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies and cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
A furious Lukashenko shot back by saying he would no longer abide by an agreement to stem illegal migration, arguing that the EU sanctions deprived his government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants.
Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Pavel Latushka, a member of the Belarusian opposition, charged that state-controlled tourist agencies were involved in offering visa support to migrants and helping them drive to the border.
The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions.
Lukashenko denies encouraging the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.

Lithuania’s Quick Response:

During the summer, Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with small groups of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus.
It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.

Present Situation at Polish Border:

In the last few days, larger groups have gathered at the Polish border, and authorities in Warsaw sent riot police and other forces there to bolster the border guards.
Polish authorities estimated about 3,000-4,000 were there.
Some people used shovels and wire cutters to try to break through a razor-wire fence to cross.
Polish authorities prevented hundreds of attempts by migrants to cross.
Eight deaths have been confirmed, and temperatures have fallen below freezing at night.

EU’s solidarity with Poland:

The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
EU officials are expected to discuss another round of sanctions against Belarus and European Council President Charles
Michel said for the first time that the bloc would consider the possibility of financing “physical infrastructure” such as barriers or fences on the border.

Chances of Consensus!

Analysts say Lukashenko’s heavy-handed approach would likely backfire on the EU rather than taking a soft approach.
Such tactics would make the situation toxic and delay the prospect of talks.
Lukashenko expects the EU to give in to pressure and ask Poland to let migrants cross into Germany.
But the EU realizes that doing so would allow Lukashenko to emerge as the winner and encourage him to continue to take further such steps, raising the number of migrants to tens of thousands.
The Belarusian opposition has urged the EU to take even tougher measures, including a trade embargo and a ban on the transit of cargo via Belarus.

What is Russia’s role?

Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped buttress Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
Russia said the migrants flow resulted from the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
Russia challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.
Russia said it could step in as a mediator in the hope of improving ties with Germany and other EU nations.

What comes next?

Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches.
Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.
Some observers expect Lukashenko to escalate the crisis and pressure the EU to ease sanctions.
At a minimum, Lukashenko wants to take revenge against the EU, and as a maximum, he aims to soften the European sanctions that have dealt a painful blow to key Belarusian industries.
So, migrants are just an instrument in a hybrid attack by Minsk.