Global warming has noticeable effects on various aspects of monsoons, including their start, end, overall rainfall patterns, and the occurrence of extreme events. Furthermore, global warming influences the behavior of cyclones in the Indian Ocean and typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
The occurrence of cyclones during the pre-monsoon cyclone season has been observed to happen closer to the onset of the monsoon. This phenomenon can be attributed to the influence of a warmer Arctic Ocean on the winds over the Arabian Sea.
Certain cyclones in the North Indian Ocean have shown both positive and negative effects on the initiation of the monsoon. The direction of winds circulating around these cyclones is counterclockwise, and their positioning plays a crucial role in influencing the transition of the monsoon trough.
During the earlier part of this year, a cyclone named Mocha formed in the Bay of Bengal in the first half of May. It briefly intensified into a “super cyclonic storm” but rapidly weakened upon making landfall.
The presence of unusual anticyclones since March has led to a significant and concerning outcome. Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have experienced a temperature increase of over 1ºC during the pre-monsoon period.
Currently, Cyclone Biparjoy is not significantly influencing the monsoon trough. However, the delayed formation of the cyclone and the late onset of the monsoon season are closely linked to typhoons occurring in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
“Southwesterly” refers to winds blowing from the southwest direction. The presence of southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea is favorable as they carry substantial amounts of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.
The intricate interplay between global warming, the formation of cyclones over the Pacific and North Indian Oceans, the warming of the North Indian Ocean, and the occurrence of late pre-monsoon cyclones and typhoons adds complexity to the dynamics of the monsoons. This complexity also challenges the accuracy of predictions regarding the monsoon’s onset and its behavior throughout the season. Previously considered a highly reliable system with its predictable northwestward migration and southeastward withdrawal, the monsoon trough now finds itself affected by the uncertainties of climate change.
Cyclone Biparjoy 2023 Live Updates on Arabian Sea Impacts and Disasters
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