The Editorial Analysis- China’s Takeaways from the War

Many observers have noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of his intentions when he visited Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics.

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China’s Takeaways from the War- Relevance for UPSC Exam

GS Paper 2: International Relations- Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

China’s Takeaways from the War in News

Like India, and on expected lines, China also abstained on the U.S.-sponsored United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution condemning Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
However, China’s reasons for abstaining from voting at the UNSC as well as its gains and expectations from the invasion are unique to its own situation.
- In 2014 too, China decided to abstain when the last vote against Russian aggression in Crimea came up for a vote in the UNSC as did the legitimacy of the Crimean referendum.

Russia Ukraine War- Chin’s Strategic Position

Whether Chine knew about Russia’s Intentions: Many observers have noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of his intentions when he visited Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics.
- Xi may have suggested that Mr. Putin wait for the Winter Olympics to conclude before recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk and sending “defensive forces” there followed by the outright invasion.
- Chinese officials have denied such talks as being baseless.
Whether China did enough to discourage Russia: Another question is whether China did enough to discourage Russia if it knew about Russia’s intention.
- China would have expected Russian action to be limited to the Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk.
- Moreover, by trying to engage the peace process, China would also like to avoid renewed criticisms of it being a selfish power.

UN Human Rights Council Resolution on Russia Ukraine War

संपादकीय विश्लेषण- युद्ध से चीन के निहितार्थ

How Russia Ukraine War would benefit China

Reduced Attention from China: As a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West will possibly direct its attention away from China.
- Thus, China will not remain the principal villain in the eyes of the liberal world, which it has been since-
  - It has been unilaterally been constructing islands in the South China Sea, and
  - Reports of human rights violations in Xinjiang have increased.
Strategic Advantages: One might also see a reduction in China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ as it senses an opportunity to meditate and create a stake in the settlement process.
- Russia is imposing costs on the West by stretching its military budgets is also a good thing for China.
- This will divert Europe’s attention to its neighbourhood and away from the Indo-Pacific and possibly delay its engagements with the Quad.
Central Asian Countries: Beijing also sees a pattern in Ukraine’s engagement with Europe and fears its repetition in Central Asia where Russian and Chinese interests converge in keeping democratic interventions away.
- The principal shared concern for China and Russia is that of externally instigated regime changes, which force democratisation in Central Asia and destabilise the region.
- That is why China while continuing to appeal to Russia to resolve its issues with Ukraine, has been rather a stern vis-à-vis the U.S. by calling the latter’s sanctions on Russia.
Tactical and Military Learning for China:
- The shock and awe and escalation matrix used by Russia could well be a template if China were to consider a military solution in Taiwan or in circumstances where it sees its core interests being violated.
- China would also be studying Russian posturing and signaling, such as putting the nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, and the response from the U.S., the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, individual European countries and the UNSC.