Unrest in Tigray Region of Ethiopia

”GS Paper – 2: Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests”

Why in News?
On November 5, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF) and eight other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army, formed an alliance, the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Force, to oust the present Ethiopian Government led by Mr Abiy(He was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2019). Under pressure, Mr Abiy has declared a nationwide state of emergency and asked citizens to take up arms and join the fight against the rebels.

Background:
In 1991, a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led coalition toppled the military regime and established a transitional government. The coalition would stay in power until the rise of Abiy Ahmed
Now, the TPLF, which controls Tigray, has joined forces with eight other opposition groups to oust the government of Abiy

Who is TPLF?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), is an ethnic-nationalist paramilitary group-cum-political party.
The TPLF, which fought the military dictatorship in the 1970s and 1980s and headed the country’s ruling coalition from 1991 to 2018, has been one of the most powerful political forces in Ethiopia.
Formed in the mid-1970s, the TPLF rose as a leftist ethnic-nationalist group of Tigrayans against the Derg, the Marxist military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam.
In the 1970s, the TPLF, aligned with the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (Eritrea was then part of Ethiopia), fought against the Derg.
When the dictatorship of Mengistu collapsed in 1991, TPLF guerrillas were welcomed in Addis Ababa as heroes. Ever since, the TPLF-led coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), ruled the country through a mix of federalism and authoritarianism.

Current Crisis:

To overcome internal weakness, Mr Abiy sought help from ethnic militias as well as the Eritrean army.
They ran over Tigray within a month and captured most of the region, including its capital Mekele.
On November 28, 2020, Mr Abiy announced that “major military operations were completed”. But the war was far from over.
The TPLF has not only recaptured Tigray but also moved south, towards Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital that hosts the headquarters of the African Union.

About Ethiopia:

Ethiopia, in the Horn of Africa, is a rugged, landlocked country split by the Great Rift Valley.
Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country.
It is a confederation of 10 provinces, which are largely divided on eth
nic lines.
The Oromos and the Amharas, who together make up more than 60% of the population, are the country’s two largest ethnic groups.
The Tigrayans, who constitute the core of the TPLF, are the third-largest group, making up some 7% of Ethiopia’s 115 million people.

Political History of Ethiopia(1991-Present)

Meles Zenawi’s Regime–
- Meles Zenawi, the charismatic TPLF leader who became Ethiopia’s President in 1991 and then Prime Minister in 1994 under the new Constitution, oversaw the country’s transition from the military dictatorship to what he called “ethnic federalism”.
- Under Zenawi’s rule, Ethiopia found relative peace with itself and started a trajectory of economic modernisation and growth.
- This was the period when Africa’s second-most populous country demonstrated signs of economic transformation and political stability at home, even as it was fighting a brutal border war with Eritrea.
- As a leader who founded the EPRDF and led the rebellion that brought down the military regime, Zenawi enjoyed popularity across regions and commanded loyalty within the ruling coalition.
- He built a state whose levers were controlled by the TPLF and yet he could keep his coalition intact.
After Zenawi
- After Zenawi’s death in 2012, the ethnic and political contradictions started resurfacing.
- His successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, found himself helpless as ethnic rebellions, especially by Amhara and Oromo groups, intensified, challenging the federal authority.
- It was against this background that the EPRDF picked Mr Abiy to lead the government in 2018.
- Mr Abiy is an ethnic Oromo, the challenge before him was to calm the ethnic nerves, ensure unity among the ruling elite and put the country back on the track of growth and stability.

Mr Abiy’s Regime:
- He was initially welcomed as a reformer.
- He lifted the state of emergency, granted amnesty to thousands of political prisoners, lifted curbs on the media, legalised banned political outfits and dismissed military and civilian leaders who were facing allegations of corruption and other wrongdoing.
- He promised to strengthen “Ethiopia’s democracy” by holding free and fair elections.
- PM Abiy also resumed talks with Eritrea, ended the war, which began in 1998, and reached a final settlement.
- He was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2019 for his efforts toward attaining peace and international cooperation, particularly for his work to end his country’s long-running border dispute with neighbouring Eritrea.

The Domestic Political Angle and Chronology of Current Crisis:

Most of Mr Abiy’s reform measures had a domestic political angle.
The political prisoners he released had been detained by the TPLF regime.
Most of the leaders arrested or sacked were the TPLF’s old hands.
Eritrea shares a long border with the Tigray region and the TPLF sees Eritrea’s ruling party as a sworn enemy.
When Mr Abiy mobilised power in his hands through a host
of political moves, the TPLF got sidelined.
Mr Abiy’s decision to dissolve the EPRDF, the TPLF-led coalition, and float a new party, Prosperity Party, practically ended the TPLF’s reign in Addis Ababa.
When Mr Abiy decided to postpone elections in September 2020, citing COVID-19, the TPLF called it a coup, and went ahead with regional polls in Tigray, in defiance of the federal government.
In November, the government sent troops to the borders of Tigray for an attack and that the rebels carried out a pre-emptive raid, following which Mr Abiy declared his war on Tigray.
Later, the federal government labelled the TPLF a terrorist organisation. Clearly, Mr Abiy wanted to finish the TPLF as a political force.

Strength of TPLF:

Having been in power for 30 years, the TPLF had built a national defence force with a sizeable number of Tigray men.
For the TPLF, the mountainous region of Tigray is its home. The mountains protected them in the 1970s and the 1980s from the wrath of the Derg. Once again, they regrouped in the mountains and struck back.
By June, the rebels inflicted a humiliating defeat on the government troops, who had to withdraw from Tigray. And then, the TPLF has moved further south, seizing more territories in neighbouring regions.

A Country under Civil War:

Mr Abiy is now on the back foot. He wanted to crush the TPLF, but in course, he pushed the whole country into a civil war.
His troops and military allies, as well as the TPLF, face allegations of war crimes.
There are reports of Tigrayans being rounded up by federal police and troops in Addis Ababa and elsewhere.
Tigray, whose supplies and economic aid have been cut off by the federal government, is on the brink of famine.